The amount of insulin needed to effectively treat type 2 diabetes will rise by more than 20% worldwide over the next 12 years.

This is the main conclusion of a new modelling study published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journal.

Insulin will be beyond the reach of around half of the 79 million adults with type 2 diabetes who will need it in 2030 if major improvements in access are not made, warn the research team led by dr. Sanjay Basu from Stanford University, USA.

Denied access to insulin

The regions that are with the most difficult insulin access are Africa, Asia, and Oceania. The study predicts they will have the largest unmet insulin need in 2030 if access remains at current levels.

The authors warn that strategies to make insulin more widely available and affordable will be critical to ensure that demand is met.

The number of adults with type 2 diabetes is expected to rise over the next 12 years due to ageing, urbanization, and associated changes in diet and physical activity. Unless governments begin initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, then its use is always going to be far from optimal.", comments Dr. Sanjay Basu from Stanford University.

Type 2 diabetes projections

Using data from the International Diabetes Federation and 14 cohort studies (representing more than 60% of the world population with type 2 diabetes), researchers estimated the burden of type 2 diabetes in 221 countries and territories between 2018 and 2030.

Results showed that worldwide, the number of adults with type 2 diabetes is expected rise by more than a fifth from 406 million in 2018 to 511 million in 2030, with over half living in just three countries—China (130 million), India (98 million), and the USA (32 million).

At the same time, global insulin use is projected to rise from 526 million 1000-unit vials in 2018 to 634 million in 2030, and will be highest in Asia (322 million vials in 2030) and lowest in Oceania (4 million).

Global insulin supply is dominated by three companies — Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Eli Lilly — which have various programs to try to improve access to their products, Reuters notes.